Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County: Prediction & Preview

Form guide

Queens Park Rangers host Derby County in the English Football League Championship with the two sides arriving in very different positions after nine matches. QPR are 6th with 14 points, having won 3, drawn 5 and lost only 1. Their overall defensive record is relatively solid, with 8 goals conceded, and they have been difficult to beat away from home, where they are unbeaten in five matches this season. At Loftus Road, though, their home record is more mixed: 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat.

Derby County are 23rd with 6 points from 9 games. They have managed only 1 win, alongside 3 draws and 5 defeats, and have conceded 15 goals. Their recent form remains a concern, with no win in the last five league matches. Away from home, Derby have taken 4 points from 4 games, but the overall return is still modest for a side trying to climb away from the lower reaches of the table.

Recent results also show both teams drawing frequently. QPR’s last five league games include four draws and one defeat, while Derby’s last five include two draws and three defeats. That pattern points to a match where control may matter more than tempo.

Head-to-head

The recent head-to-head record has been fairly balanced, with Derby holding a slight edge in the latest meetings. In the last five league encounters, Derby have won three times, QPR once, and one match ended in a QPR victory:

• 2026-04-25: Queens Park Rangers 2-3 Derby County
• 2025-10-25: Derby County 1-0 Queens Park Rangers
• 2025-02-14: Queens Park Rangers 4-0 Derby County
• 2024-10-05: Derby County 2-0 Queens Park Rangers
• 2022-04-18: Queens Park Rangers 1-0 Derby County

Key factors

QPR’s league position suggests a stronger baseline, but their recent sequence of draws shows they are not converting consistency into clear wins. Derby, meanwhile, have struggled for results and have conceded more than they would want, which makes their task at Loftus Road difficult.

The market and the model both point toward a tighter match. The listed expected goals are 1.43 for QPR and 1.15 for Derby, which supports a controlled contest rather than a high-scoring one. With both teams showing a tendency toward draws and QPR’s home matches not producing many clear outcomes, the margin may stay narrow.

Our prediction

Tip: Under 2.5 goals. Probability: 52%.

This is only a prediction, not a certainty. The main risk is that both teams have shown enough to score, and the recent head-to-head results include several matches with multiple goals.